Labour’s ‘smash the gangs’ pledge won’t see Channel migrant crossings fall until next year – amid Albania’s ‘return hub’ snub humiliation for Keir Starmer
Measures to curb migrant Channel crossings are not expected to bring numbers down until next year – as Albania has already ruled itself out of participating in a new scheme designed to crack down on smuggling gangs.
Officials are understood to be pessimistic about the prospect of making a significant impact on numbers this year, with measures not expected to start paying off until 2026.
More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on course to be a record year for crossings.
The rise is thought to be partly due to an increase in so-called ‘red days’, when the weather is particularly good for crossings.
So far there have been around double the number of red days in 2025 than there were by the same point in 2024.
Smugglers are also cramming more people into the boats, with sources suggesting migrants, increasingly from the Horn of Africa, are more likely to take risks.
The Prime Minister has pledged to crack down on smuggling gangs that bring people into the UK in small boats, including by targeting criminal networks overseas.
Sir Keir Starmer said this week the Government would start talks with other countries on ‘return hubs’ for failed asylum seekers.
Measures to curb migrant Channel crossings are not expected to bring numbers down until next year, according to officials
More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on course to be a record year for crossings
Starmer has already faced an embarrassing defeat after Albania became the first country to rule itself out of the Government’s ‘return hubs’ scheme
He said these hubs, which would see failed asylum seekers sent for processing in third countries prior to deportation, would not be a ‘silver bullet’ for halting the crossings, but the proposal is expected to act as a deterrent.
However Starmer has already faced an embarrassing defeat after Albania became the first country to rule itself out of the Government’s scheme.
In a surprise move, the Prime Minister used a visit to Tirana yesterday to unveil plans to create Rwanda-style centres abroad to house failed asylum seekers from the UK.
But the initiative imploded on live TV just an hour later when his host, Albanian premier Edi Rama, announced his country would not be taking part in the scheme.
At the same time, Labour‘s hardline new approach to legal migration – designed to tackle the surge in reform votes – has not helped Sir Keir’s personal popularity.
A poll by YouGov today showed the Prime Minister’s personal rating is down five points in a month to a record low of minus 46.
The popularity of Nigel Farage has risen by 11 points to minus 29, following the by-election win in Runcorn and Helsby, and gains in local elections.
Perhaps most worryingly for Sir Keir, he is down a stunning 34 points with those who voted Labour last year, in a poll carried out after he said Britons were becoming ‘strangers in their own land’.
The Prime Minister has pledged to crack down on smuggling gangs that bring people into the UK in small boats, including by targeting criminal networks overseas. Pictured: Migrants arrive in Dover, Kent, last month
he blow for Sir Keir comes as he looks to talk tough on immigration to combat the rising threat from Reform UK – despite years of saying the opposite
Half of those who put him into power last year now have an unfavourable opinion of him.
The blow for Sir Keir comes as he looks to talk tough on immigration to combat the rising threat from Reform UK – despite years of saying the opposite.
Officials insisted that return hubs could still be negotiated with other Balkan nations, such as Serbia, Bosnia and North Macedonia.
Ministers are also investigating possible deals with several African states, although not Rwanda.
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Measures to curb migrant Channel crossings are not expected to bring numbers down until next year – as Albania has already ruled itself out of participating in a new scheme designed to crack down on smuggling gangs.
Officials are understood to be pessimistic about the prospect of making a significant impact on numbers this year, with measures not expected to start paying off until 2026.
More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on course to be a record year for crossings.
The rise is thought to be partly due to an increase in so-called ‘red days’, when the weather is particularly good for crossings.
So far there have been around double the number of red days in 2025 than there were by the same point in 2024.
Smugglers are also cramming more people into the boats, with sources suggesting migrants, increasingly from the Horn of Africa, are more likely to take risks.
The Prime Minister has pledged to crack down on smuggling gangs that bring people into the UK in small boats, including by targeting criminal networks overseas.
Sir Keir Starmer said this week the Government would start talks with other countries on ‘return hubs’ for failed asylum seekers.
Measures to curb migrant Channel crossings are not expected to bring numbers down until next year, according to officials
More than 12,000 people have already made the journey this year, putting 2025 on course to be a record year for crossings
Starmer has already faced an embarrassing defeat after Albania became the first country to rule itself out of the Government’s ‘return hubs’ scheme
He said these hubs, which would see failed asylum seekers sent for processing in third countries prior to deportation, would not be a ‘silver bullet’ for halting the crossings, but the proposal is expected to act as a deterrent.
However Starmer has already faced an embarrassing defeat after Albania became the first country to rule itself out of the Government’s scheme.
In a surprise move, the Prime Minister used a visit to Tirana yesterday to unveil plans to create Rwanda-style centres abroad to house failed asylum seekers from the UK.
But the initiative imploded on live TV just an hour later when his host, Albanian premier Edi Rama, announced his country would not be taking part in the scheme.
At the same time, Labour‘s hardline new approach to legal migration – designed to tackle the surge in reform votes – has not helped Sir Keir’s personal popularity.
A poll by YouGov today showed the Prime Minister’s personal rating is down five points in a month to a record low of minus 46.
The popularity of Nigel Farage has risen by 11 points to minus 29, following the by-election win in Runcorn and Helsby, and gains in local elections.
Perhaps most worryingly for Sir Keir, he is down a stunning 34 points with those who voted Labour last year, in a poll carried out after he said Britons were becoming ‘strangers in their own land’.
The Prime Minister has pledged to crack down on smuggling gangs that bring people into the UK in small boats, including by targeting criminal networks overseas. Pictured: Migrants arrive in Dover, Kent, last month
he blow for Sir Keir comes as he looks to talk tough on immigration to combat the rising threat from Reform UK – despite years of saying the opposite
Half of those who put him into power last year now have an unfavourable opinion of him.
The blow for Sir Keir comes as he looks to talk tough on immigration to combat the rising threat from Reform UK – despite years of saying the opposite.
Officials insisted that return hubs could still be negotiated with other Balkan nations, such as Serbia, Bosnia and North Macedonia.
Ministers are also investigating possible deals with several African states, although not Rwanda.
