Vaccination for Ebola in Uganda (Image: Getty)
Labour’s decision to slash foreign aid budgets could put the UK at risk of deadly diseases arriving on our shores, critics say. Experts are worried about cuts to vaccination programmes funded by the UK which control the spread of diseases such as Ebola and monkeypox.
Sir Keir Starmer’s decision to cut the UK aid budget from 0.5% of national income to 0.3% will reduce spending by £6bn. The Prime Minister said the measure was needed to help fund an increase in defence spending. Reform UK activist and political commentator Tim Montgomerie said: “Yes, the government has tough choices to make — but one thing is clear: the British public doesn’t want to see health threats spiral out of control, whether at home or abroad. People understand that if we turn our backs on disease prevention elsewhere, we’re inviting the problem to our own doorstep. Ministers need to listen — this isn’t just about aid, it’s about common sense public health.”
Professor Timothy Hallett, Associate Director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis at Imperial College London said: “We’ve made extraordinary progress in tackling diseases like HIV, malaria, and TB — progress that’s saved millions of lives and stabilised entire health systems. But that progress is fragile.
“Cutting aid to vaccine and prevention programmes now threatens to unravel decades of work and risks a resurgence of diseases we were close to controlling. This is not the moment to step back.”
New polling found 50 per cent of Reform voters think vaccinating children against diseases like Ebola and Malaria should continue to be funded despite wider aid cuts.
Three in five Britons a a whole, 60 per cent, said child vaccination programmes should be protected from cuts following the reduction in the UK’s aid budget.
And three in four Labour voters, 74 per cent, said that the government’s commitment to global vaccines budgets (Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance) should not be cut, while 70% of Labour voters said the government’s commitment to the Global Fund tackling HIV, Malaria and TB should not be cut.
A recent focus group of Labour-Reform UK swing voters conducted by More in Common in Wolverhampton South East found strong support for government prioritising vaccine investment post cuts. The focus group was conducted with those who voted Labour at the last election but would now vote Reform in Cabinet Minister Pat McFadden MP’s constituency.
Trevor, Facilities Manager from Wolverhampton said: “If the foreign aid bill was to be used in a positive way, you wouldn’t mind it, would you? I mean, if they came out tomorrow and said, we’re going to take the foreign aid bill and we’re going to use it to send vaccines to the commonwealth countries that we provide foreign aid to, then you go, brilliant. Protecting yourself at the end of it as well, aren’t you?”
Conleth Burns, Associate Director at More in Common says: “Having spoken to voters in Wolverhampton about what the government should and shouldn’t prioritise in the reduced aid budget in the spending, it’s not surprising that there’s strong support across the board for protecting vaccine improvements. For these voters, investments in vaccines helped keep infectious diseases out of Britain, had a clear track record and they felt represented good value for money for British taxpayers.”
Reform UK bombshell as poll tips Nigel Farage to win Commons majority
Nigel Farage, Member of Parliament and Reform UK Leader (Image: Getty)
Electoral Calculus – one of the most accurate forecasters out there – predicts Reform UK is set for an outright Commons majority come the next general election, slated for 2029. True, politics is a marathon, not a sprint – and much can change in 4 years – but Nigel Farage’s party is currently predicted to win 362 MPs on just over 30% of the vote.
By contrast, Labour – which won a whopping 412 seats in 2024 – would drop to 136 seats. Meanwhile, the Tories would fall into fifth place nationally with a mere 22 MPs. On the one hand, Reform’s opinion poll surge shows no sign of reversing. On the other, conditions could change radically. Under-fire Tory leader Kemi Badenoch could be elbowed out. A new Tory leader may well fail to deliver but could they do any worse?
Sir Keir Starmer could also claw back some points as the PM looks to steal a march on Reform. Don’t discount the possibility meanwhile of global conditions turning in Labour’s favour. Voters might be reluctant to change governments during a global war, such as a conflict over Taiwan, a very real possibility in the next few years.
Incumbency advantage helped the Canadian Liberals after the Trump tariffs, just when Canada’s Conservative Party looked set to win. Labour could likewise steal victory from the jaws of defeat. Reform could also fail to deliver at a local level. Its DOGE policy to save money could backfire, undermining the insurgent party’s credibility. More infighting won’t help either.
Still, these risks notwithstanding Reform benefits from the disaster of the current Labour government and the calamity of the previous Conservative one. Right now, Reform’s worst-case scenario seems to be coming first in the next election but needing the Tories as a minority partner to rule in coalition. That still has Farage as PM and the Tories as the support act.
Perhaps Farage’s biggest challenge will be holding together a coalition of Thatcher-sympathising ex-Tories and working-class Red Wallers keen on government getting stuff done. A taste of this contradiction was exposed by the recent pledge to lift the two-child benefit cap. A vote winner on the road to Wigan Pier. Less appealing to the stockbroker belt.
Still, both sides of this coalition are united by disdain for mainstream politics, mass immigration, tolerance for crime, the perceived abuse of human rights laws, and the “woke” agenda. Reform is not so much redefining UK politics as adapting to a new marketplace while occupying a new space beyond traditional ideas of Left and Right.
For now, Reform’s growing base will forgive a lack of detailed policy so long as they like the vibes. But as 2029 draws near, Farage and co need more meat on the bone and a team ready for government. That is why Reform’s future record in local government will be critical. It will be all voters have to judge when it comes to the party’s fitness to govern.
Still, Reform has topped every opinion poll since mid-April, smashed the May 1 elections, and won the Runcorn by-election from Labour. This does feel like an epochal change. To keep the momentum up however requires running a tight ship, ongoing professionalisation, more policy meat on the bones, and the building up of a decent record in local government. But the next election still looks like Reform’s to lose.
