A year since taking power, big challenges face the PM (Image: Getty)
After last year’s election, I argued Britain needs to start thinking like a business if it wants to get back on track. I supported the Prime Minister and Chancellor’s commitment to put growth at the top of their priority list with measurable objectives and hard deadlines.
Their support for clear targets made a good deal of sense. Most people instinctively understand the difference between a vague ambition and a time bound target pinned to someone’s name. Ministers call it “mission-led government.” Every pledge would be tracked, measured and judged in public. The private sector has a name for this form of analysis – the Key Performance Indicator. As a former CEO of an online trading company, this is something I’m more than familiar with.
The KPI system, which ranks performance from red to green, is a good way to enhance focus and accountability. The traffic light system triggers debate, because there’s so little room to hide – the “devil really is in the detail.”
Sadly, one year into their time in office, the government seems to have abandoned its commitment to this kind of transparency. And, a year later, reality looks rather different.
Whilst many targets have been set – and some are genuinely ambitious, there are still too many five-year goals, too many get-outs, and too little accountability.
Worse still, the much-touted Mission Boards, which were supposed to scrutinise delivery, have vanished into the ether.
It says something about modern politics that even in the digital age, when almost any metric can be tracked in real time, the electorate still has to surf multiple websites to see if the promises made to them are being kept.
In a business, this wouldn’t be tolerated. You don’t get to shirk responsibility. You don’t get to shrug and blame the economic weather when your targets flash red. You certainly don’t get to hide the numbers.
That’s why, in the absence of an official scoreboard, the Adam Smith Institute and I have compiled our own. We’ve rolled up our sleeves and collected 16 of the government’s key performance indicators from manifestos, speeches and policy documents. When the targets were set over five years, we’ve prorated them to see where they should stand after 12 months. Where relevant, we have started our analysis on day one of their government.
And, to make things nice and simple, we did what any good board would do, colour-coded them. Green for success. Amber if they were close (or faced genuine mitigating factors). Red for failure.
I should stress that this type of analysis is unemotional, focusing on the performance of the previous 12 months. This analysis of performance versus KPIs does not seek to justify or commend the decisions of this government – simply to hold them to account.
Of the 16 KPIs, six are green and seven are red, with the rest being mixed or lacking adequate data. Worryingly, the reds include many of the main economic drivers. Monthly growth has averaged just 0.09% since July 2024, well below the rate needed to achieve the goal of 2.5% annual growth by 2029. What’s more, inflation, which the government pledged to stabilise at 2%, has also risen, with June’s annualised CPI inflation reaching 3.7%.
Of course, sluggish growth is hardly surprising when you factor in the government’s decision to raise National insurance contributions and scrap the non-dom regime.
Looking at the rest of the KPI portfolio, there are a few bright spots – particularly relating to spending. The government, to its credit, is on track to meet its proposals on delivering new NHS appointments, hiring more mental health staff and is likely to increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.
But, this raises wider questions about the government’s overall strategy. What does this mean for our public finances when the government is meeting its spending commitments but not growing the economy as planned?
The Adam Smith Institute’s scorecard on the Government (Image: Adam Smith Institute)
In the end, the government’s performance against these KPIs has been disappointing. Regardless of what one might think of their mission, they’re far from making it a reality. And, they’re struggling to deliver where it matters most – economic growth.
Ministers now need to focus – really focus – on these KPIs. The PM, like any good CEO, will need to hold his Ministers to account. Ministers who persistently fail to meet their targets will need to be replaced. When the KPI flashes red, they won’t be able to hide behind the spin.
The next twelve months will define this government’s legacy. Delivering on these commitments won’t just look good on a spreadsheet. It could also help restore public confidence and show that, after years of drift, there is finally a plan that works.
Britons in despair as economy and immigration worries under Labour laid bare
Economic pessimism has taken hold under Sir Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves (Image: POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Britons’ despair about the economy and worry about immigration is laid bare in new figures. Nearly seven out of 10 people (68%) think the economy will get worse in the year ahead. The last time so many people said this after a Government’s first year in office was in April 1980 as Margaret Thatcher battled industrial strife and high inflation.
In contrast, just one in four people thought the economy would get worse a year after the election of John Major or Tony Blair. A mere 12% of people in Sir Keir Starmer’s Britain told pollsters Ipsos they thought the economy would get better. Women are more pessimistic than men with 72% compared to 63% thinking it will worsen.
When asked to name the most important issues facing the country, four out of 10 mentioned immigration – more than for the economy or healthcare (both 30%), defence and foreign affairs (20%), inflation (17%), housing (13%), pensions and benefits (12%), or lack of faith in politicians or poverty or education (all 10%).
The focus on immigration and the economy will hike pressure on Sir Keir’s Government, coming on the heels of figures showing the GDP shrinking and unemployment and inflation going up, with more than 46,000 migrants crossing the Channel on small boats since Labour took power.
Just 16% of Labour supporters said immigration was one of the most important issues facing the country, compared with 47% of Conservative backers and eight out of 10 people backing Reform UK. There was no stark gender divide when it came to concern about immigration, with 42% of men and 38% of women mentioning it.
Older people aged 55-plus are much more likely to mention immigration as a concern (50%) than the 18-34 age group (29%)
Gideon Skinner, senior director of UK Politics at Ipsos, commented on the extent of economic pessimism, saying: “The Ipsos archive shows the only newly-elected government facing a similarly challenging context in consumer confidence on its anniversary was Margaret Thatcher’s in 1980.”
Richard Tice, the deputy leader of Reform UK, said the “British people have every right to be concerned,” saying “taxes keep rising”.
He said: “Millionaires are leaving this country in droves, and choosing nations that actually incentivise business and growth. Our first priority will be slashing wasteful government spending, ditching lunatic net zero policies, and putting British jobs first.”
Margaret Thatcher at the Boat Show in 1979 (Image: SSPL via Getty Images)
But a Treasury spokesperson defended Labour’s record, saying: “Since the election interest rates have been cut four times, real wages have grown more than in the entire first decade of the last government and living standards are now higher. We’ve struck major trade deals with the EU, US, and India, protecting jobs, cutting business costs, and driving growth and are backing that up with record investment.
“Over £113billion more than the last Government, that includes £15.6billion for city transport, £39billion for affordable housing, £14.2billion for Sizewell C, and £22.6billion a year for R&D. This is how we’re delivering on our plan for change to put more money in working people’s pockets.”
