Experts pinpoint cause of surging rates of liver cancer – as cases surge in under 50s with numbers set to DOUBLE by 2050
Liver cancer is on course to become a far bigger global health crisis—particularly among younger adults—with cases expected to double by 2050, experts have warned.
Once seen as a disease affecting mainly older people with hepatitis infections or alcohol dependency, liver cancer is now increasingly being diagnosed in people in their 30s and 40s.
A major new analysis published in The Lancet links this shift to the rise in obesity and related liver conditions such as MASLD (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease).
The report projects that the number of new liver cancer cases worldwide will jump from 870,000 in 2022 to 1.52 million by 2050, while annual deaths from the disease are set to rise from 760,000 to 1.37 million over the same period.
Experts say one of the fastest-growing causes is MASH (metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis), a severe form of fatty liver disease tied to obesity and metabolic dysfunction.
The proportion of liver cancers linked to MASH is expected to more than double, from 5 per cent in 2022 to 11 per cent in 2050.
The number of cases caused the most common cause of the deadly disease—the hepatitis B virus—are set to decline.
Similarly, cases caused by the hepatitis C virus are also expected to decline proportionately.
The number of cases of liver cancer are predicted to double by 2025 with leading causes being obesity and alcohol consumption
However, the number of cases caused by obesity and alcohol are predicted to rise over the same time period.
Specifically, over a fifth of liver cancer cases will be caused by alcohol by the year 2050.
Meanwhile, one in ten cases will be caused by a severe form of MASLD—formerly known as fatty liver disease.
This condition occurs when fat builds up in a person’s liver, and is closely linked to obesity and type 2 diabetes.
The team of researchers, from Hong Kong, highlighted that 60 per cent of cases of the deadly disease are preventable.
On their findings, the researchers said they indicate that preventative measures need to be taken for liver cancer, which is also known as hepatocellular carcinoma.
The main treatment for MASLD is eating a balanced diet, being physically active and potentially losing weight.
‘Liver cancer is a growing health issue around the world,’ said Professor Jian Zhou, chairman of the Commission from Fudan University in China.
‘It is one of the most challenging cancers to treat, with five-year survival rates ranging from approximately 5 to 30 per cent.
‘We risk seeing close to a doubling of cases and deaths from liver cancer over the next quarter of a surgery without urgent action to reverse this trend.’
They study’s lead author, Professor Stephen Chan, from the Chinese University of Hong Kong, added: ‘There is a huge opportunity for countries to target these risk factors, prevent cases of liver cancer and save lives.’
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Commenting on the study, Pamela Healy, chief executive of the British Liver Trust, said: ‘Liver is the fastest rising cause of cancer death in the UK, and just 13 per cent of people diagnosed will survive for five years or more.’
‘We know that the biggest risk factors are having pre-existing liver cirrhosis or viral hepatitis, and this new analysis highlights that MASLD, also known as fatty liver disease, is expected to be linked to an increasing number of cases.’
Liver cirrhosis is a progressive disease that can lead to live failure if left untreated—which is when the organ has permanent scarring due to long-term damage.
‘As well as improving early detection through surveillance of people with cirrhosis, it is essential that we tackle these underlying causes and prioritise public health,’ he added.
‘By supporting people to maintain a healthy weight, cut down on alcohol and get tested and treated for hepatitis, we can prevent many cases of liver cancer and save lives.’
This map of England highlights the areas of the country that are most blighted by obesity
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In the UK, there has been a strong sense of urgency to tackle the UK’s growing obesity crisis to alleviate pressures on the National Health Service.
According to recent data, nearly two-thirds of adults in England are overweight, with an extra 260,000 people entering the category last year.
Meanwhile, more than a quarter (26.5 per cent)—an estimated 14 million people—were classified as obese.
Last month GPs allowed to prescribe weight loss jabs, collectively known as GLP-1s for the first time in a bid to tackle the crisis.
An estimated 1.5 million people are now using weight loss jabs through the NHS or private clinics, while millions more are eligible.
