Starmer claims he’s making Britain ready for WAR as UK faces ‘new nuclear risks’ and ‘Russian aggression’… but he won’t say how he will pay for it
Keir Starmer dodged demands for a cast-iron commitment to spend 3 per cent of GDP on defence today as he unveiled a push to get Britain ‘war-ready’.
The PM has heralded a strategic review of the UK’s military, promising investment in new submarines, munitions and personnel.
He has warned that the mounting threat from Russia and allies such as Iran and North Korea means the country must ramp up preparations.
Germany‘s defence chief has raised the prospect of Putin attacking a Nato state within the next four years. And a senior Lib Dem MP said this morning that he believes the UK will be directly at war with Moscow within a decade.
But the government’s blueprint is predicated on spending reaching 3 per cent in the next decade – and the premier admitted that depends on meeting Labour‘s ‘fiscal rules’.
‘I am not going to make a commitment as to the precise date,’ he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
Yesterday Defence Secretary John Healey rowed back on a statement that the increase ‘will’ happen, stressing that it is an ‘ambition’.
The Treasury appears to be panicking over how to balance the books as the economy stalls, with the respected IFS think-tank insisting ‘chunky’ tax rises are the only way to keep finances under control.
External authors of the report – expected to be accepted in full by Sir Keir – have suggested that reaching 3 per cent is ‘vital’ to its success.
Former head of the Army Lord Dannatt warned that vague funding pledges will not ‘cut the mustard’, saying it was like telling Hitler in 1938 ‘please don’t attack us until 1946 because we’re not going to be ready’.
Key elements of the proposals include:
- Up to 12 new nuclear-powered attack submarines will be built;
- A £1.5billion push to set up at least six munitions factories, supporting the procurement of up to 7,000 UK-built long-range weapons
- British fighter jets could soon carry nuclear weapons for the first time;
- Increasing the number of people in the armed forces, but not until the next Parliament;
- Setting up a new cyber command and investing £1billion in digital capabilities;
- More than £1.5billion in extra funding will go to military homes in response to the review.
Keir Starmer is facing demands for a cast-iron commitment to spend 3 per cent of GDP on defence today as he unveils a push to get Britain ‘war-ready’
The Ministry of Defence has already announced plans to build up to 12 new nuclear-powered attack submarines (pictured, HMS Astute in service in April)
Yesterday Defence Secretary John Healey rowed back on a statement that the increase ‘will’ happen, stressing that it is an ‘ambition’
Writing in The Telegraph, Labour former minister Lord Robertson, Russian expert Fiona Hill and General Sir Richard Barrons said the ‘Government’s important decision to raise Defence spending to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027-28 and, vitally, to 3 per cent in the next Parliament made an enormous difference’.
They added: ‘The decision established the affordability of our recommendations across a 10-year programme.’
Sir Keir said: ‘We had a commitment for 2.5 per cent by the end of this Parliament. We pulled that right forward to 2027.
‘We showed that when we say there’s a new era of the defence and security of our country, is our first priority – as it is – that we meant it. We take the same approach to 3 per cent.
‘But I’m not going to indulge in the fantasy politics of simply plucking dates from the air until I’m absolutely clear that I can sit here in an interview with you and tell you exactly how that’s going to work, because I take the defence and security of our country extremely seriously.’
Sir Keir launched the Government’s Strategic Defence Review in Scotland, following many months of work and lobbying by military chiefs.
A Nato summit later this month is expected to push for members to hit 3.5 per cent by 2032, while US President Donald Trump has already called for a jump to 5 per cent within the alliance.
Speaking in Glasgow, Sir Keir said: ‘First, we are moving to war-fighting readiness as the central purpose of our armed forces.
‘When we are being directly threatened by states with advanced military forces, the most effective way to deter them is to be ready, and frankly, to show them that we’re ready to deliver peace through strength.’
The second change is that the Government will adopt a ‘Nato-first’ stance towards defence so that everything it does adds to the strength of the alliance.
Sir Keir added: ‘Third, we will innovate and accelerate innovation at a wartime pace, so we can meet the threats of today and of tomorrow, as the fastest innovator in Nato.’
German defence chief General Carsten Breuer told the BBC over the weekend that Russia could attack a Nato Baltic state member by 2029, or even earlier.
‘This is what the analysts are assessing – in 2029. So we have to be ready by 2029… If you ask me now, is this a guarantee that’s not earlier than 2029? I would say no, it’s not. So we must be able to fight tonight,’ he said.
Lord Dannatt told Times Radio that the government might have to ‘tighten its belt’ or increase taxes to escalate defence spending.
‘Just moving to 2.5 per cent of GDP by 2027 does not cut the mustard in any shape or form,’ he said.
‘And this rather vague commitment to move to 3 per cent by the end of the next parliament, 2034, I mean, it just doesn’t stack up.
‘It’s a little bit like saying in 1938 to Adolf Hitler, please don’t attack us till 1946, because we’re not going to be ready.
‘Well, frankly, if we’d behaved like that, we wouldn’t be speaking English this morning, would we?’
IFS director Paul Johnson pointed out that the government was already making noises about reinstating the winter fuel allowance, and easing the two-child benefits cap.
‘We’ve got a spending review next week. And if we’re really going to spend another £10-15billion a year on defence, whilst inevitably we’re going to spend more and more on health and pensions and so on, you really do have to ask that question, what are the choices that you’re going to make?’ he told Times Radio.
‘And I mean, bluntly, it really does seem to me that the only choice that is available, if we’re going to go through all of those things, is some really quite chunky tax increases to pay for it.
‘But of course, that’s not something the prime minister or the chancellor is willing actually to say.’
Former Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane also predicted tax rises ‘towards the end of the year’, and suggested Ms Reeves will also have to rewrite her fiscal rules to get defence spending higher.
‘It will require Rachel to loosen herself imposed fiscal chains to some degree, and indeed, we’ll need to see some tax rises I suspect towards the end of the year,’ he told LBC.
‘We’ll need a bit more borrowing, a bit more taxation and a loosening of our fiscal shackles, to step up to the plate on defence things and beyond.’
Mr Healey told the BBC’s Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg show yesterday: ‘We have a historic commitment to increasing defence spending to 2.5 per cent in two years’ time. We haven’t hit that level since Labour was last in power in 2010. And an ambition to meet 3 per cent in the next Parliament.’
Challenged that it was an ‘just an ambition’ rather than a ‘guarantee’, Mr Healey talked about being able to ‘deliver the vision’ of today’s review.
Defence minister Luke Pollard again refused to confirm the commitment this morning, telling Times Radio: ‘Well, we’ve set out that we are spending 2.5 per cent by April 2027, with the ambition to spend 3 per cent in the next parliament, when economic conditions allow.’
He added: ‘Well I’ve got no doubt that we will get to 3 per cent in the next parliament, as I’ve said a number of times.’
Mr Pollard said the strategic defence review was the ‘biggest transformation of our armed forces in 100 years’.
He said: ‘It seeks to learn the lessons from the war in Ukraine, refresh our capabilities, invest in our people, and underscore that increased defence spending up to 2.5 per cent of our GDP by April 2027 is an engine for growth.’
The Ministry of Defence has already announced plans to build up to 12 new nuclear-powered attack submarines to boost the Royal Navy’s commitment to the Aukus Pacific defence partnership with Australia and the United States, while investing £15billion in warheads.
But the first of these UK-built submarines is not expected to enter service before the late 2030s.
It will also be for future Parliaments to honour the spending commitment.
Sir Keir was speaking at the BAE Systems’ Govan facility in Glasgow today
The Conservatives have seized on on Labour’s muddle on defence, accusing Mr Healey of weakening UK security.
Tory defence spokesman James Cartlidge told the Mail: ‘These promises on submarines are a fantasy fleet without real money to back them up.
‘The fact is, John Healey has been forced into a humiliating climb down by the Treasury after confirming, as recently as Thursday, that defence spending would definitely rise to 3 per cent.
‘But by Sunday he was backtracking completely. John Healey has been badly let down by the Chancellor – so now he knows how the rest of us feel.’
